Earnings Season Preview, Q3 2018

Third quarter earnings season is set to kick-off next week with JPM reporting on 10/12.  We’ll have a pretty light week, with only 32 companies reporting before things start heating up the following week.

  • S&P 500 just finished it’s best quarter in 5 years
  • This marks the 6th consecutive positive month
  • This is the best quarter, +7.2% since the 4th quarter 2013

The market continues to inch higher, with most of this years performance coming in the past quarter.  As we enter the 4th quarter of 2018, historically the S&P has been +4.9%.  If we factor in the Presidential cycle, the average since 1949 for Q4 is +7.81%.  Despite the Fed raising rates for the 8th time since 2015 last week, and removing the accommodative language in the policy statement, the Fed expects continued gradual hikes to continue.  That said, turning to the recent, and dismal performance of small cap ETFs, I wonder if they might be the canary in the coal mine?

For all of our members, make sure you check your profile and make sure you have all of your positions are accurate and your reminders are set.

 

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